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I. Market focus
At the beginning of Wednesday’s session, the main topic in the global financial markets was the failure of the vote on the Brexit withdrawal deal with Europe in the House of Commons. The bill was rejected by 432 votes to 202. After an unsuccessful vote for the Conservative Party, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn proposed a no-confidence motion in Theresa May’s government. The vote will be held today at 19:00 GMT. As a result, the risks of a no-deal Brexit increased significantly. The chances of a second referendum and/or early general elections rose considerably as well. After the vote, the volatility in the pound increased noticeably. Initially, the British currency fell sharply but fully erased its losses by the end of yesterday's session. Such dynamics reflect the confidence of market participants that today's vote will be successful for the government of Theresa May and she will be able to retain the post of prime minister. In addition, the negative impact of an unsuccessful Brexit vote was mitigated by the extension of the March 29 deadline for the UK leaving the block. Earlier this week, the media reported that withdrawal of the UK from the EU could be postponed until at least July. If the government survives today’s vote of no confidence it will have to present a new Brexit plan on Monday. The loss of the vote of no confidence will be a big negative surprise for the markets. In this case, the parliament will have two weeks to form a new government. If this does not happen, new parliamentary elections will be announced in the UK.
A vote of no confidence in the UK government today will be the main event. Against this backdrop, the data on inflation in the UK, which will be released at 09:30 GMT, will be of secondary importance. At the same time, the speech of the governor of the Bank of England (BoE) Mark Carney (09:15 GMT) can have a very strong influence on the dynamics of the pound.
The stock market participants continue to assess the quarterly reports of companies, as the third-quarter earnings season rolls. Today, the focus will be on the results from Bank of America Corporation (BAC), U.S. Bancorp (USB), The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) and BlackRock, Inc. (BLK), set to be released before the market opens, as well as CSX Corporation (CSX), Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI) and Alcoa Corporation (AA), scheduled to be published after the close of today’s trading.
II. The market highlights are:
The Labor Department reported on Tuesday the U.S. producer-price index (PPI) fell 0.2 percent m-o-m in December after a 0.1 m-o-m increase in November. For the full 2018, the PPI surged 2.5 percent, the same as in 2017. Economists had forecast the headline PPI would edge down 0.1 percent m-o-m last month but advance 2.5 percent over the past 12 months. According to the report, 80 percent of the December decrease in the final demand index was attributable to a 0.4-percent m-o-m decline in prices for final demand goods. Meanwhile, the index for final demand services edged down 0.1 percent m-o-m. Excluding volatile prices for food and energy, the PPI dropped 0.1 percent m-o-m but rose 2.7 percent over 12 months, missing economists forecasts for gains of 0.2 percent m-o-m and 2.9 percent y-o-y.
The report from the New York Federal Reserve showed on Tuesday that manufacturing activity in the New York region expanded in January of 2019 at a slower pace than in December of 2018. According to the survey, NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index stood at 3.9 this month compared to a revised 11.5 in December (originally 10.9). That was the lowest reading since May 2017. Economists had expected the index to come in at 11.25. Anything below zero signals contraction. The new orders index dropped 9.9 points to 3.5, indicating that growth in orders slowed significantly, while the shipments index decreased 2.4 points to 17.9. The index for number of employees fell 10.1 points to 7.4, revealing a modest increase in employment levels, while the average workweek index was little changed at 6.8. With regard to inflation, the prices paid index declined 3.8 points to 35.9, pointing to a slight deceleration in input price increases, while the prices received index edged up 0.3 points to 13.1.
The report released by the Cabinet Office on Tuesday showed Japan's core machinery orders, an indicator of capital expenditures in the coming six to nine months, were flat m-o-m in November, following an unrevised 7.6 percent m-o-m surge in October. Economists had expected an increase of 3.5 percent m-o-m. According to the report, manufacturing orders plunged 6.4 percent m-o-m in November, while non-manufacturing orders rose 2.5 percent m-o-m. Orders from overseas jumped 18.5 percent m-o-m, while government orders tumbled 26.8 percent m-o-m and orders from agencies decreased 4.0 percent m-o-m. In y-o-y terms, core orders, which excludes those of ships and electricity, rose 0.8 percent in November, compared to a 4.5 percent y-o-y advance recorded in October and a 0.4 percent y-o-y gain projected by the economists.
III. Market Situation
The currency pair EUR/USD consolidated near the opening level, as investors took a breather after the previous drop in the pair, which was caused by the release of disappointing data on the growth of the German economy in 2018, and the results of the vote in British Parliament on the Brexit deal. Today, market participants will focus on the U.S. statistics on import prices, the housing market index, and the volume of purchases of the U.S. securities by foreign investors. In addition, they will pay attention to the Fed's Beige Book, a report on current economic conditions in each of the 12 Federal districts in the U.S. This report is published eight times per year, two weeks before each meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Resistance level - $1.1489 (high of January 15). Support level - $1.1337 (low of January 3).
The currency pair GBP/USD fell slightly as part of the correction after the previous day’s rally, which was caused by the results of the parliamentary vote on the Brexit deal. Despite the fact that the parliament voted down the agreement proposed by Prime Minister May, investors began to bet that if parliament does not back the divorce agreement until March 29, Brussels would rather delay Brexit than allow the UK to leave the bloc without an agreement. Today, the drivers for the pound will be a vote of no confidence in the UK government and inflation data for Britain. Resistance level - $1.2929 (high of January 14). Support level - $1.2669 (low of January 15).
The currency pair AUD/USD traded near the opening level due to the lack of new catalysts that could set the direction of movement. Certain support to the pair was provided by the weakness in the U.S. currency. At thr same time, investors almost ignored data from Australia. The Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index fell 4.7 percent in January to 99.6 points, pushing it below 100 points and indicating there are more pessimists about the economy than optimists. Resistance level - AUD0.7245 (high of December 13, 2018). Support level - AUD0.7175 (January 14).
The currency pair USD/JPY traded little changed. The focus of investors was gradually shifting to Japan’s inflation data, set to be published on Thursday at 23:30 GMT. Inflation pressures in Japan remain underwhelming. In November, the country’s CPI rose 0.8 percent y-o-y and the CPI excluding fresh food increased 0.9 percent y-o-y, both well below the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2 percent inflation target. For December, given a decline in energy prices, experts expect headline inflation to decelerate to just 0.4 percent, while core inflation pressures should remain relatively unchanged. Resistance level - Y109.08 (high of January 8). Support level - Y107.77 (low of January 10).
U.S. stock indexes closed higher on Tuesday, as a climb in Netflix Inc’s (NFLX; +6.5%) shares and hopes of more stimulus for China’s slowing economy more than offset weaker-than-expected earnings reports from JPMorgan Chase (JPM; +0.7%) and Wells Fargo (WFC; -1.6%). Focus also was on the data on producer prices. The Labor Department reported the U.S. producer-price index (PPI) fell 0.2 percent m-o-m in December after a 0.1 m-o-m increase in November. For the full 2018, the PPI surged 2.5 percent, the same as in 2017. Economists had forecast the headline PPI would edge down 0.1 percent m-o-m last month but advance 2.5 percent over the past 12 months. Excluding volatile prices for food and energy, the PPI dropped 0.1 percent m-o-m but rose 2.7 percent over 12 months, missing economists forecasts for gains of 0.2 percent m-o-m and 2.9 percent y-o-y.
Asian stock indexes closed mixed on Wednesday, despite an overnight rally on Wall Street, as investors sifted through fresh uncertainties surrounding the Brexit.
European stock indexes are expected to trade higher in the morning trading session.
Yields of US 10-year notes hold at 2.71% (-1 basis points)
Yields of German 10-year bonds hold at 0.21% (0 basis points)
Yields of UK 10-year gilts hold at 1.15% (0 basis points)
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures traded higher. Crude oil for delivery in February settled at $52.17 (+0.12%). The crude oil prices rose slightly, supported by a weakness in the U.S. dollar and the latest data from the American Petroleum Institute (API). The API reported late Tuesday that U.S. crude supplies reduced by 560,000 barrels for the week ended January 11. At the same time, the gasoline stockpiles surged by 6 million barrels, while distillate inventories rose 3.2 million barrels. Market participants are now awaiting weekly data on U.S. crude inventories from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Gold traded at $1,291.80 (+0.18%). Gold prices rose slightly, helped by the negative dynamics of the U.S. currency. The index, measuring the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.06 percent to 95.98. Since gold prices are tied to the dollar, a weaker dollar makes the precious metal cheaper for holders of foreign currencies.
IV. The most important scheduled events (time GMT 0)
BOE Gov Mark Carney Speaks
Producer Price Index - Input
Retail Price Index
Producer Price Index - Output
Import Price Index
NAHB Housing Market Index
Crude Oil Inventories
Fed's Beige Book
Net Long-term TIC Flows
Total Net TIC Flows
|remaining time till the new event being published|
Mise au point du marché
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