CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 05-02-2019

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05.02.2019
23:30
Schedule for today, Wednesday, February 6, 2019
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
01:30 Australia RBA's Governor Philip Lowe Speaks    
02:00 U.S. President Trump Speaks    
07:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) December -1.0% 0.3%
13:15 Canada Housing Starts January 213.4 202
13:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) December 2.6% -1.0%
13:30 U.S. Unit Labor Costs, q/q Quarter IV 0.9% 1.7%
13:30 U.S. Nonfarm Productivity, q/q Quarter IV 2.3% 1.7%
13:30 U.S. International Trade, bln November -55.5 -54
13:35 Canada Gov Council Member Lane Speaks    
15:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index January 59.7 56
15:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories February 0.919 1.601
21:45 New Zealand Unemployment Rate Quarter IV 3.9% 4.1%
21:45 New Zealand Employment Change, q/q Quarter IV 1.1% 0.3%
22:30 Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index January 42.6  
23:05 U.S. FOMC Member Quarles Speaks    
21:10
Major US stock indexes finished trading in positive territory

Major US stock indexes rose moderately, as results exceeded expectations Estee Lauder and Ralph Lauren spurred optimism about corporate reporting in anticipation of the long-awaited US President's report to Congress on the situation in the country.

Trump's speech before the Congress should take place at 02:00 GMT on Wednesday. Market participants will listen carefully to Trump's speech, hoping to find out the latest news about trade negotiations with China and the wall on the border with Mexico. Earlier it was reported that the American president is considering the use of emergency powers to fulfill his promise to finance the wall on the border with Mexico. Trump agreed to stop the 35-day partial closure of the federal government (“shatdaun”) last week, without receiving the necessary $ 5.7 billion for the construction of the wall.

The focus of market participants was also on US data. A report by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) pointed to a slowdown in business growth in the services sector last month. The index of business activity in the service sector from ISM fell in January to 56.7 points compared to 58.0 points in December. Analysts predicted that the index will drop to 57.2 points. A value greater than 50 is usually considered as an indicator of growth in production activity.

Separate data showed that the US economic optimism index, calculated by Investor's Business Daily newspaper and TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics, fell in February to 50.3 points from 52.3 points in January and reached its lowest level since October 2017. Experts expected the index to rise to 53.1 points. It is worth emphasizing that the index is above the level of 50 points for 29 months in a row (since October 2016), which is the longest series in the entire history of this study, that is, more than a decade. At the same time, the index is now 2.3 points higher than its long-term average value and 2.3 points higher than the indicator of December 2007, when the economy entered a recession.

Most of the components of DOW finished trading in positive territory (18 out of 30). The growth leader was the shares of The Boeing Co. (BA, + 3.18%). Pfizer Inc. shares turned out to be an outsider. (PFE, -0.66%).

All sectors of the S & P recorded an increase. The largest growth was shown by the service sector (+ 0.9%).

At the time of closing:

Dow 25,411.52 +172.15 +0.68%

S & P 500 2,737.66 +12.79 +0.47%

Nasdaq 100 7,402.08 +54.55 +0.74%

20:50
Schedule for tomorrow, Wednesday, February 6, 2019
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
01:30 Australia RBA's Governor Philip Lowe Speaks    
02:00 U.S. President Trump Speaks    
07:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) December -1.0% 0.3%
13:15 Canada Housing Starts January 213.4 202
13:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) December 2.6% -1.0%
13:30 U.S. Unit Labor Costs, q/q Quarter IV 0.9% 1.7%
13:30 U.S. Nonfarm Productivity, q/q Quarter IV 2.3% 1.7%
13:30 U.S. International Trade, bln November -55.5 -54
13:35 Canada Gov Council Member Lane Speaks    
15:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index January 59.7 56
15:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories February 0.919 1.601
21:45 New Zealand Unemployment Rate Quarter IV 3.9% 4.1%
21:45 New Zealand Employment Change, q/q Quarter IV 1.1% 0.3%
22:30 Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index January 42.6  
23:05 U.S. FOMC Member Quarles Speaks    
20:00
DJIA +0.63% 25,398.57 +159.20 Nasdaq +0.71% 7,399.35 +51.81 S&P +0.39% 2,735.60 +10.73
17:01
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 +143.24 7177.37 +2.04% DAX +191.40 11367.98 +1.71% CAC 40 +83.15 5083.34 +1.66%
15:21
U.S. non-manufacturing activity decelerates in January: ISM’s survey

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported its non-manufacturing index (NMI) came in at 56.7 in January, which was 1.3 percentage points lower than the December 2018 reading of 58.0 percent. This pointed to continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate.

Economists forecast the index to decrease to 57.2 last month. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 11 reported growth last month, the ISM said.

According to the report, the ISM’s non-manufacturing business activity measure dropped to 59.7 percent, 1.5 percentage points lower than the December reading of 61.2 percent. That reflected growth for the 114th consecutive month, at a slower pace in January. The new orders gauge decreased to 57.7 percent, 5 percentage points lower than the reading of 62.7 percent in December. Meanwhile, the employment indicator rose 1.2 percentage points in January to 57.8 percent from the December reading of 56.6 percent. The Prices Index increased 1.4 percentage points from the December reading of 58 percent to 59.4 percent, indicating that prices increased in January for the 20th consecutive month.

Commenting on the data, the Chair of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, Anthony Nieves, noted, "The past relationship between the NMI and the overall economy indicates that the NMI for January (56.7 percent) corresponds to a 2.8-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

15:02
U.S. services sector growth slows in January: Markit

Final data released by IHS Markit showed activity growth in the U.S. services sector improved at the slowest rate for four months.

The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit final U.S. Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) posted 54.2 in January, down slightly from 54.4 in December 2018. The rate of expansion was the softest for four months and weaker than both the series trend and the average seen in 2018.

Economists had expected the reading to come in at 54.2.

A reading above 50 signals an expansion in activity, while a reading below this level signals a contraction.

According to the report, the rise in output was also the slowest for four months, amid one of the softest increases in new business since October 2017. In line with a slower increase in new business, employment growth eased to the second-weakest since June 2017. However, firms registered a stronger degree of confidence towards business activity levels over the coming 12 months. On the price front, price pressures eased in January, with the rate of input price inflation weakening to a 22-month low. The increase in cost burdens was also slower than the series trend but solid overall.

15:00
U.S.: ISM Non-Manufacturing, January 56.7 (forecast 57.2)
14:45
U.S.: Services PMI, January 54.2 (forecast 54.2)
14:33
Dow +0.49%, Nasdaq +0.28%, S&P +0.27%
14:25
Before the bell: S&P futures +0.22%, NASDAQ futures +0.41%

U.S. stock-index rose on Tuesday, as market participants continued to assess corporate earnings, while awaiting President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address.


Global Stocks:

Index/commodity

Last

Today's Change, points

Today's Change, %

Nikkei

20,844.45

-39.32

-0.19%

Hang Seng

-

-

-

Shanghai

-

-

-

S&P/ASX

6,005.90

+114.70

+1.95%

FTSE

7,128.56

+94.43

+1.34%

CAC

5,054.09

+53.90

+1.08%

DAX

11,296.74

+120.16

+1.08%

Crude

$53.89


-1.23%

Gold

$1,319.00


-0.02%

13:44
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


ALTRIA GROUP INC.

MO

49.15

0.04(0.08%)

3103

Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

AMZN

1,645.38

12.07(0.74%)

43143

Apple Inc.

AAPL

172.5

1.25(0.73%)

237564

AT&T Inc

T

29.69

0.08(0.27%)

23566

Boeing Co

BA

400.5

3.50(0.88%)

41701

Caterpillar Inc

CAT

131.52

0.64(0.49%)

7211

Chevron Corp

CVX

119.31

-0.43(-0.36%)

3240

Cisco Systems Inc

CSCO

47.43

0.08(0.17%)

3250

Citigroup Inc., NYSE

C

64.38

0.32(0.50%)

2706

Exxon Mobil Corp

XOM

74.84

0.02(0.03%)

19147

Facebook, Inc.

FB

169.3

0.05(0.03%)

102638

FedEx Corporation, NYSE

FDX

183

0.27(0.15%)

527

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

FCX

11.96

0.10(0.84%)

3550

General Electric Co

GE

10.24

0.03(0.29%)

75757

General Motors Company, NYSE

GM

39.01

0.08(0.21%)

1706

Google Inc.

GOOG

1,114.01

-18.79(-1.66%)

46135

Home Depot Inc

HD

186.35

-0.08(-0.04%)

261

HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC.

HON

148.39

0.46(0.31%)

581

Intel Corp

INTC

49.09

-0.13(-0.26%)

8964

International Business Machines Co...

IBM

135.75

0.56(0.41%)

8153

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

133.15

0.27(0.20%)

740

JPMorgan Chase and Co

JPM

104.4

0.15(0.14%)

4385

McDonald's Corp

MCD

178.4

0.85(0.48%)

2414

Merck & Co Inc

MRK

77.59

0.72(0.94%)

5415

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

105.9

0.16(0.15%)

37470

Nike

NKE

82.1

0.11(0.13%)

2753

Pfizer Inc

PFE

42.4

-0.04(-0.09%)

1260

Procter & Gamble Co

PG

97.97

-0.06(-0.06%)

874

Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

SBUX

67.75

0.17(0.25%)

1501

Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

TSLA

312.8

-0.09(-0.03%)

43668

The Coca-Cola Co

KO

49.42

0.17(0.35%)

1276

Twitter, Inc., NYSE

TWTR

34.4

0.46(1.36%)

110637

United Technologies Corp

UTX

120

0.86(0.72%)

506

UnitedHealth Group Inc

UNH

268.37

0.16(0.06%)

570

Verizon Communications Inc

VZ

54.1

0.06(0.11%)

520

Visa

V

142

0.50(0.35%)

9348

Wal-Mart Stores Inc

WMT

95.23

0.46(0.49%)

4654

Walt Disney Co

DIS

112.5

0.70(0.63%)

27264

Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

YNDX

34.19

-0.07(-0.20%)

12302

13:40
Initiations before the market open

American Intl (AIG) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse; target $46

13:39
Target price changes before the market open

Tesla (TSLA) target lowered to $283 from $291 at Morgan Stanley  

Boeing (BA) target raised to $459 from $435 at Bernstein

13:38
Upgrades before the market open

Merck (MRK) added to US 1 List at BofA/Merrill

12:44
UN warns of currency wars and widespread protectionism if the U.S.-China trade conflict escalates

A report released by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) on Monday outlined the potential impact of increased tariffs between the U.S. and China.

According to the UN report, continuing or hiking tariffs between the U.S. and China would have an unavoidable impact on the "still fragile" global economy, including disturbances in commodities, financial markets and currencies.

"One major concern is the risk that trade tensions could spiral into currency wars, making dollar-denominated debt more difficult to service," the report said. "Another worry is that more countries may join the fray and that protectionist policies could escalate to a global level."

It was also noted that protectionist policies generally hurt weaker economies the most, while tit-for-tat steps of the trade giants would have a domino effect beyond their domestic markets.

"Tariff increases penalize not only the assembler of a product but also suppliers along the chain," the report said.

12:22
Company News: Alphabet (GOOG) quarterly results beat analysts’ forecasts

Alphabet (GOOG) reported Q4 FY 2018 earnings of $10.95 per share (versus $9.70 in Q4 FY 2017), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $10.91.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $39.276 bln (+21.5% y/y), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $38.911 bln.

GOOG fell to $1,106.00 (-2.37%) in pre-market trading.

11:44
EU’s Juncker to meet UK PM May on Thursday

According to the latest headlines floating on the wires, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker will meet with British Prime Minister Theresa May later this week.

The spokesman for the bloc’s executive, Margaritis Schinas, said the meeting will be held in Brussels on Thursday, adding that the EU wants to hear what May plans to do on Brexit.

“The European Union’s position is clear,” Margaritis Schinase said. “We are expecting, waiting once again to hear what the prime minister has to tell us.”

10:58
German economy minister Altmaier: Germany may buy stakes in firms to stop takeovers in key sectors

Germany could take stakes in companies to prevent foreign takeovers in some key technology areas, Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said on Tuesday.

"It can go as far as the state taking temporary stakes in companies - not to nationalise them and run them in the long run but to prevent key technologies being sold off and leaving the country", Altmaier said.

10:54
European Commission President Juncker: EU executive was not needlessly blocking corporate mergers

In a speech to industrialists, Juncker said the Commission had only ever blocked 30 mergers and approved more than 6,000.

“This is a message for those who are saying that the Commission is composed (of) stubborn technocrats. This shows that we believe in competition as long as it is fair for all. We will never play politics or play favorites when it comes to ensuring a level playing field.” he said.

Сomment seemingly aimed at complaints in France and Germany over its expected rejection of a merger between Siemens’ and Alstom’s rail businesses.

10:34
UK Mulling Unilateral Tariff Cuts On Goods After Brexit – Huffington Post
10:26
Volume of retail trade down by 1.6% in euro area

According to estimates from Eurostat, in December 2018 compared with November 2018, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade decreased by 1.6% in the euro area (EA19) and by 1.4% in the EU28. In November, the retail trade volume increased by 0.8% in the euro area and by 1.0% in the EU28.

In December 2018 compared with December 2017 the calendar adjusted retail sales index increased by 0.8% in the euro area and by 1.2% in the EU28.

The average retail trade for the year 2018, compared with 2017, rose by 1.4% in the euro area and by 2.0% in EU28.

In the euro area in December 2018, compared with November 2018, the volume of retail trade fell by 2.7% for nonfood products and by 0.3% for food, drinks and tobacco, while it increased by 0.5% for automotive fuel. In the EU28, the retail trade volume fell by 2.6% non-food products and by 0.4% for foods, drinks and tobacco, while it increased by 0.7% for automotive fuel.

In the euro area in December 2018, compared with December 2017, the volume of retail trade increased by 2.5% for automotive fuels, by 0.7% for food, drinks and tobacco and by 0.5% for non-food products. In the EU28, the retail trade volume increased by 3.3% for automotive fuel, by 1.2% for non-food products, and by 0.6% for food, drinks and tobacco.

10:14
SMMT: British new car registrations dip 1.6% in January

According to the latest figures released today by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), the UK’s new car market dipped 1.6% in January. 161,013 new cars were registered for use on UK roads, with trends in fuel choice seen last year continuing in the first month of 2019.

Following a decline in December, private buyers returned to showrooms – up 2.9% – registering 71,378 models in the month. Conversely, demand from business and fleet buyers fell by -33.5% and -3.4% respectively.

Meanwhile, appetite for alternatively fuelled vehicles grew 26.3%, resulting in a total 6.8% market share. The performance supports the latest forecast for this sector, currently expected to rise more than a quarter by the end of 2019 to around 177,000 units.

Petrol demand also grew in January, up 7.3%, but this was not enough to offset another month of decline for diesel, as registrations fell 20.3%.

10:00
Eurozone: Retail Sales (YoY), December 0.8% (forecast 0.5%)
10:00
Eurozone: Retail Sales (MoM), December -1.6% (forecast -1.6%)
09:44
UK business activity stagnates amid modest drop in new work GBPUSD

January data indicated a renewed loss of momentum for the UK service sector, with a decline in incoming new work reported for the first time since July 2016.

At 50.1 in January, the headline seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Business Activity Index was down from 51.2 in December. The latest reading was the lowest for two-and-a-half years and the second-weakest since December 2012.

Survey respondents overwhelmingly linked the slowdown in business activity growth to heightened political uncertainty at the start of 2019. New business volumes declined for the first time in two and-a-half years during January, although the rate of contraction was only modest. Political uncertainty was the most commonly cited reason for lower new orders. Backlogs of work decreased for the fourth month running in January, which pointed to reduced pressure on business capacity and a lack of new orders to replace completed projects. Meanwhile, service providers reported more cautious staff hiring strategies in response to subdued demand and heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook.

Despite softer demand for staff, service sector firms continued to cite higher salary payments as a key factor driving up input costs during January. The overall rate of input cost inflation edged up to a three-month high.

Optimism towards the year ahead outlook for business activity rebounded slightly from December's 29-month low. That said, the latest reading was still one of the lowest seen since early 2009.


After the release of the data, the pound fell against major currencies, while the GBP / USD reached January 24 low.

09:30
United Kingdom: Purchasing Manager Index Services, January 50.1 (forecast 51)
09:15
Eurozone growth edges lower in January

The IHS Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index edged lower in January, falling for a fifth successive month to register its lowest level for five-and-a-half years.

After accounting for seasonal factors, the index recorded 51.0 in January, a little better than the earlier flash estimate of 50.7 but still down from 51.1 in December and signalling only weak growth in business activity.

Activity weakness was principally centered on France and Italy. Output in France was down for a second successive month, and at the fastest rate in over four years. Meanwhile, Italian private sector output deteriorated for the third time in four months and to the greatest degree in over five years.

The IHS Markit Eurozone PMI Services Business Activity Index was unmoved on December’s 49-month low of 51.2 at the start of the year.

France and Italy remained the primary sources of weakness, with both countries registering declines in activity during January. This was in stark contrast to Germany and Spain, where growth of activity improved in each case.

09:06
Germany: business activity growth accelerates for first time in four months

The headline seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index ticked up in January for the first time in four months, signalling a more solid rate of growth than at the end of 2018. However, at 53.0, from 51.8 in December, the latest reading was still the second-lowest in the past eight months and below the average recorded since the current upturn began in mid-2013 (54.2).

Inflows of new business at service providers eased closer to stagnation in January, rising only marginally and at the slowest rate for over three-and-a-half years. With business activity growing more quickly than incoming new work in January, service providers recorded a further decrease in backlogs during the month. It marked the first back-to-back falls since the spring of 2017.Furthermore, the rate at which outstanding business decreased was the most marked since May 2016. January saw the rate of employment growth across Germany's service sector ease for the fourth straight month to the slowest since last May.

On the price front, January's survey indicated a steep rise in service sector output charges that was the strongest in three months. Wage pressures were also widely mentioned, with services firms' overall operating expenses rising to the greatest extent since March 2011.

Looking ahead, service providers reported slightly stronger optimism towards the outlook for activity over the next 12 months.

09:00
Eurozone: Services PMI, January 51.2 (forecast 50.8)
08:55
Germany: Services PMI, January 53 (forecast 53.1)
08:50
France: Services PMI, January 47.8 (forecast 47.5)
08:36
DUP leader Arlene Foster: Backstop must be replaced

  • The current backstop is 'toxic'

  • Backstop would divide UK on trade

  • Backstop must be replaced

  • Have raised opposition to backstop repeatedly with Theresa May

  • Will support May if the backstop is replaced/removed

  • Says that DUP wants a Brexit deal but with no backstop

08:24
Spain: business activity rises at fastest pace in seven months

According to the report from IHS Markit, the headline Business Activity Index rose to 54.7 in January from 54.0 in December. The latest reading signalled a marked monthly rise in activity that was the greatest since June last year. Services activity has now increased in each of the past 63 months, with panellists linking the latest rise to higher new orders.

The Transport & Storage sector again posted the sharpest increase in activity of the broad sectors covered by the survey, with only Hotels & Restaurants signalling a reduction. Although new business continued to expand in January, the rate of expansion eased to a 25-month low. New export orders decreased for the sixth successive month, albeit marginally. Outstanding business rose only fractionally at the start of 2019, with the latest accumulation the weakest in the current nine-month sequence of increasing backlogs. Service providers increased their staffing levels at a sharp and accelerated pace amid rising demand and the securing of new clients. The rate of job creation was the fastest since July last year. Companies took on extra staff amid improving sentiment regarding the 12-month outlook for activity.

Input costs continued to rise at a sharp pace in January, and one that was above the series average. This was despite the rate of inflation softening to a four-month low. Where input prices increased, panellists often linked this to higher staff costs. Service providers responded to increases in input costs by raising their output prices accordingly. Charges were up for the ninth month running, and to the greatest extent since March 2018.

08:04
Italy coalition parties agree that EU affairs minister Savona should be next head of bourse watchdog consob -league source
07:49
BP CEO Dudley: The Oil Market Will Be In Balance This Year

  • Oil Market "Feels Tight" Going Forward

  • BP Will Make Sizeable Share Buyback Over Time

07:43
Deloitte: Construction booming in regional UK citiesv

Accounting firm Deloitte said, construction activity in four regional cities in Britain is at a record high, including a flurry of building projects in Manchester, despite uncertainty about Brexit/

Deloitte said its Real Estate Crane Survey, covering Leeds, Birmingham, Manchester and Belfast, showed sustained or increased activity across sectors including offices, hotels, retail, education and student housing.

"To have construction figures this healthy is somewhat of a surprise given a myriad of market uncertainties," Deloitte Real Estate partner and regional head Simon Bedford said.

07:29
Trump to Begin Releasing Fiscal 2020 Budget Plan on March 11

The White House is expected to begin releasing the president's fiscal year 2020 budget proposal on March 11, about a month later than usual due to the partial government shutdown.

Administration officials have told lawmakers the proposal will be unveiled in two parts. The president's budget message, top priorities, and summary tables will come March 11. The remaining materials, including proposed spending cuts, detailed budgets for each agency. and the analytic perspectives document, including the economic assumptions underlying the plan, will be released the following week.

07:22
German chancellor Angela Merkel: there is still time to find political solution on Brexit

  • It is important to know what British side wants exactly

  • Finding a solution on backstop will depend on the type of trade agreement forged

07:16
RBA retains record low interest rate, but trims growth outlook AUDUSD

  • Low rates supporting economy

  • Progress on unemployment, inflation expected to be gradual

  • Central scenario for gdp growth to average around 3 pct this year

  • Central scenario for gdp growth to slow in 2020 due to weaker resource exports

  • Inflation remains low and stable

  • Central scenario for inflation 2 percent in 2019, and 2.25 pct in 2020

  • Household consumption remains a source of uncertainty

  • Main domestic uncertainty remains around household spending, effect of falling house prices

  • Consumption data have been volatile

  • Growth in household income expected to pick up and support spending

  • Labour market remains strong

  • Wage growth to pick up gradually over time

  • Further fall in unemployment rate to 4.75 pct expected

  • Gdp growth in september quarter was weaker than expected

  • Credit conditions for some borrowers are tighter than they have been

  • Global economy slowed in second half of 2018, downside risks have increased

  • Seeing some signs of slowdown in global trade, partly stemming from trade tensions

  • Australian dollar has remained within the narrow range of recent times

  • Australia's terms of trade have increased, expected to decline over time

07:10
Australia trade surplus rose to A$3.681 billion in December AUDUSD

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Australia posted a seasonally adjusted merchandise trade surplus of A$3.681 billion in December. That exceeded expectations for a surplus of A$2.225 billion and was up sharply from the A$2.256 billion surplus in November.

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $2,796m in December 2018, an increase of $131m on the surplus in November 2018.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $634m (2%) to $37,924m. Non-monetary gold fell $1,034m (57%) and net exports of goods under merchanting fell $1m (3%). Rural goods rose $353m (10%) and non-rural goods rose $33m. Services credits rose $16m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $2,058m (6%) to $34,244m. Capital goods fell $1,070m (15%), intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $717m (6%) and consumption goods fell $653m (7%). Non-monetary gold rose $161m (45%). Services debits rose $222m (3%).

In original terms, the balance on goods and services for 2018 was a surplus of A$22.2b, an increase of A$12.7b on the surplus of A$9.5b recorded in 2017, resulting from a A$51.1b (13%) increase in goods and services credits and a $38.4b (10%) increase in goods and services debits.

07:07
Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda: there was no change to the central bank's assessment of the economy after polling errors forced the labour ministry to revise monthly wages data
06:57
Australia retail sales slide 0.4% in December AUDUSD

The Australian Bureau of Statistics said, the total value of retail sales in Australia was down a seasonally adjusted 0.4% on month in December. This follows a rise of 0.5% in November 2018. Sales were expected to decline 0.1%.

The trend estimate rose 0.2% in December 2018. This follows a rise of 0.2% in November 2018 and a rise of 0.2% in October 2018.

In trend terms, Australian turnover rose 3.2% in December 2018 compared with December 2017.

The following industries rose in trend terms in December 2018: Food retailing (0.2%), Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.3%), Other retailing (0.1%), Cafes restaurants and takeaway food services (0.1%), and Department stores (0.1%). Household goods retailing was relatively unchanged (0.0%).

In volume terms, the trend estimate for Australian turnover rose 0.3% in the December quarter 2018.

06:26
Options levels on tuesday, February 5, 2019 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1556 (3439 )

$1.1518 (3383)

$1.1493 (3491)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1431

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1392 (3854)

$1.1347 (3998)

$1.1299 (2765)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date February, 8 is 70597 contracts (according to data from February, 4) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (4693);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3137 (1767)

$1.3096 (1930)

$1.3075 (1206)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3040

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2976 (670)

$1.2936 (266)

$1.2892 (457)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date February, 8 is 24136 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (1930);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date February, 8 is 24807 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2550 (1900);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.03 versus 1.02 from the previous trading day according to data from February, 4

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

03:30
Australia: Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate, 1.5% (forecast 1.5%)
02:30
Commodities. Daily history for Monday, February 4, 2019
Raw materials Closed Change, %
Brent 62.7 -0.1
WTI 54.95 -0.88
Silver 15.84 -0.31
Gold 1311.96 -0.43
Palladium 1364.87 0.94
00:30
Australia: Trade Balance , December 3.681 (forecast 2.25)
00:30
Stocks. Daily history for Monday, February 4, 2019
Index Change, points Closed Change, %
NIKKEI 225 95.38 20883.77 0.46
Hang Seng 59.47 27990.21 0.21
ASX 200 28.4 5891.2 0.48
FTSE 100 13.91 7034.13 0.2
DAX -4.08 11176.58 -0.04
Dow Jones 175.48 25239.37 0.7
S&P 500 18.34 2724.87 0.68
NASDAQ Composite 83.67 7347.54 1.15
00:30
Australia: Retail Sales, M/M, December -0.4% (forecast -0.1%)
00:30
Japan: Nikkei Services PMI, January 51.6
00:15
Currencies. Daily history for Monday, February 4, 2019
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.72245 -0.34
EURJPY 125.674 0.16
EURUSD 1.14348 -0.2
GBPJPY 143.275 0.04
GBPUSD 1.3037 -0.31
NZDUSD 0.68834 -0.21
USDCAD 1.31103 0.18
USDCHF 0.99783 0.26
USDJPY 109.897 0.36

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