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Trade agreements to replace WTO

11 décembre 2019 Lysakov Sergey

World trade organization (WTO) lost its role after its enforcement arm, the Appellate body, forfeited its function to render any judgments. United States has blocked the appointment of new judges to replace those whose terms have expired yesterday. As of today, the only one acting judge remain in the Body while at least three needed to enforce trade ruling.

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Don’t bet on euro rally

10 décembre 2019 Lysakov Sergey

An increasing number of banks see euro surging in 1Q2020 to almost $1.16. Strategists bet on Brexit resolution by the end of January 2020 as a major driver for European currency along with stabilizing economy.

ABN Amro Bank NV and Commerzbank AG are seeing euro at $1.14 by March 2020, Morgan Stanley bulls euro to $1.16 in 1Q2020. The currency is seen rising to $1.12 by March before a steady ascent to $1.16 by the end of 2020, up from around $1.1065 now, according to Bloomberg survey.

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Major economies are seen on a fragile recovery track, accommodating to trade wars

09 décembre 2019 Lysakov Sergey

Stable growth momentum anticipated in Euro area as a whole, and France and Italy in particular in the next six to nine months, according to the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development calculations. Composite leading indicators, reviewed by OECD, continue to point to stable growth momentum in Japan and Canada. Signs of stabilizing growth are also emerging in the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom.

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Strong nonfarm payrolls could put Fed’s interest rates on hold in 2020

06 décembre 2019 Lysakov Sergey

Stronger than expected nonfarm payrolls pushed US dollar against all currencies. Unexpected 266,000 change of employed vs 186,000 expected and 160,000 anticipated in November made US dollar surge to 1.1070 vs Euro (EUR) and 108.900 to Japanese yen (JPY). Gold dumped by 0.6% to $1467 an ounce just after labor market data were released.

Average hourly earnings were also above expectation at 3.1% year-on-year in November.

US Bureau of Labor Statistics also revised October nonfarm payrolls up to 156,000 from 128,000.

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OPEC+ output cuts could remain ink on paper

05 décembre 2019 Lysakov Sergey

OPEC+ decision on further cuts could be partially shrugged off by some members. As OPEC+ members gathered in Vienna on Thursday to discuss possible further cuts of crude output by additional 400,000 bpd latest OPEC analysis showed a large oversupply and build-up in inventories in the first half of 2020.

Saudi Arabia and Venezuela proposed even deeper additional cuts by 500,000 bpd to 1.2 mb/d according to the agreement to be running by end of March 2020 with a strict condition of "total compliance".

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Global uncertainty and stalling growth could push gold prices further up in 2020

28 novembre 2019 Lysakov Sergey

Global economic growth continues to be week despite some signs of recovery. The outlook for 2020 by OECD was recently trimmed to 2.9% with major world economies continue slowdown in a year to come.

Trade tensions between United States and China fueled by geopolitical risks retracting world trade. Central banks throughout the globe tend to lower interest rates or al least likely to maintain it at low levels. Government bonds such as US 10-year Treasuries as alternative safe heaven assets are underperforming inflation with low or even negative yields.

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Global growth seen on slow recovery track

27 novembre 2019 Lysakov Sergey

Global economy growth loses momentum slowing down to the weakest pace since the Great recession in 2007-2008. Although the are some signs of potential recovery at the end of 2019 uncertainties in trade policies, low public and private investments, and crumbling multilateral order makes sustainable growth fragile.

The Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has notched its outlook from estimated 3% in 2020 to 2,9%. Forecast for Global GDP growth for 2019 remain unchanged at 2.9%.

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Housing and consumer durable goods to look for a FED’s further interest rates actions

26 novembre 2019 Lysakov Sergey

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in his recent speech before members of the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce painted a bright almost unclouded outlook for the past decade and short-term perspective.

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Digital currencies to turn official. China leads the way

25 novembre 2019 Lysakov Sergey

People's Bank of China has started a crackdown campaign on digital currency in Shanghai and Shenzhen. Since a legal ban on digital currencies trading was introduced in 2017 most of such "exchanges" moved outside mainland China to Japan or Singapore, even EU and US. The most likely reason for a recent crackdown is to cease any operations in digital currencies to prevent capital flight.

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ECB interest rates short-term change unlikely, unconventional stimulus could dominate

22 novembre 2019 Lysakov Sergey

A new European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde confirmed she would start a strategic review of ECB's monetary policy to bolster economic growth and bring the euro area inflation closer to a 2% target. She reiterated that ECB's accommodative policy is a key element in supporting domestic demand that should be addressed by all European nations' institutions as a major driver for economic development.

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